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Article - Which TEOTWAWKI event is most likely?

Offline TWP

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Article - Which TEOTWAWKI event is most likely?
« on: May 12, 2018, 12:40:16 PM »
First, this does contain some "fear and anxiety" statements.  It sells...

My point in posting this is to give you some perspective on what might happen.  These are the big things on a prepper disaster list.

DO bear in mind that there are other, smaller, events which will likely impact your life, like income, housing, vehicles, illness, simple bad weather, flooding, etc.  These are localized and should be a part of your prepper planning.

This article goes to the BIG events which might have far reaching consequences (world-wide or country wide).

Please don't ignore these, but also don't let them make you put on blinders because they are too scary...

So, the article:

http://www.prep-blog.com/2018/05/08/which-teotwawki-event-is-most-likely/
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Offline pengyou

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Re: Article - Which TEOTWAWKI event is most likely?
« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2018, 04:22:09 PM »
Good read.  I especially liked the last line - "with human stupidity being the one universal constant".

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In the early days, the settlers would band together and build their houses nearby for safety....it seems that we have to do the opposite now....sad.

Offline Jerry D Young

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Re: Article - Which TEOTWAWKI event is most likely?
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2018, 06:37:04 PM »
I have not posted this in a while. Now is as good a time as any, I suppose.

My Thoughts On:
Considerations For Prep Planning
By Jerry D Young

As for what I prepare for, I prepare less by type of disaster than I do by basic human needs. The basic needs are pretty much the same, no matter what the disaster. As I meet my goals for the basics I do specific things for specific disasters. There really are not that many individual elements that are not appropriate for several sets of circumstances. My ultimate goal is to be as self-sufficient for as long of a period as it is practical to be in modern society.

This is a list of the things I consider when I am making preps, in alphabetical order. The dangers in some of them relate directly to peoples’ belief in them, as much as the actual event. Some things do not have to happen to be a danger. The mere belief can be enough to set people on a destructive path.

 (No. I am not ready for all of them yet. And yes, some of them simply call for having your affairs in order.)

 
1)   A New Evil charismatic leader (Hitler /Stalin /Mao style)
2)   A New Messiah
3)   A new Persian Empire
4)   Abolishment /unconstitutional rewrite of the US constitution
5)   Active shooter at public venue /business
6)   Active shooter at school /college campus
7)   Addictive Entertainment
8)   Advanced Technology disaster
9)   Agenda 21
10)   Airplane crash
11)   Anarchy
12)   Antibiotic resistant bacteria
13)   Armageddon
14)   Atmospheric River storm /severe flooding
15)   Automotive accident
16)   Avalanche
17)   Aztlan /Reconquista Uprising
18)   Bank closure /failure /mandated bank holiday
19)   Bath Salt drug zombies
20)   Becoming a refugee
21)   Becoming lost in the megalopolis
22)   Becoming lost in the wilderness
23)   Bee Colony Collapse Disorder (fungi /pesticide /parasites) crop pollination failures
24)   Biblical flood
25)   Biblical plagues
26)   Biological war /attack
27)   Black hole appearance
28)   Blackout
29)   Blizzard
30)   Boat wreck /ship wreck
31)   Brownout
32)   Carrington Event /Massive solar flare
33)   Celestial object impact /near miss
34)   Central US major tectonic /volcanic activity
35)   Chemical war /attack
36)   Civil war
37)   Civilian disarmament
38)   Cloning of dangerous plants /animals
39)   Cloning of humans
40)   Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
41)   Communication restrictions
42)   Corporate /industrial flight from the US
43)   Crime wave
44)   Criminal Coup of the government
45)   Crop failures
46)   Dam failure /collapse
47)   Dangerous wildlife confrontation
48)   Dark matter /anti-matter incident
49)   Declining drinking water aquifer levels
50)   Destruction /loss of the middle class
51)   DHS take over
52)   Draconian police powers /actions
53)   Drinking water aquifer contamination /poisoning
54)   Drought
55)   Dust bowl
56)   Earth Core Cooling
57)   Earth orbit shift
58)   Earthquake
59)   Eco-system collapse
60)   Electro Magnetic Pulse attack (EMP attack)
61)   Electro Magnetic Pulse from coronal mass ejection or other solar activity
62)   Encroachment of drinking water aquifers by seawater
63)   Environmental disaster
64)   Epidemic
65)   Ethnic war
66)   Evidence of extraterrestrials
67)   Exodus of important skill holders from the US
68)   Exodus of the wealthy /rich from the US
69)   Extraterrestrial biological contamination
70)   Federal police force w /broad powers circumventing civilian protections
71)   Fire storm
72)   Flash mob violence /criminal event
73)   Flash flood
74)   Food shortages /price increases
75)   Forest fire /wild fire
76)   Fuel shortages /price increases
77)   Fungal infections of food staples crops
78)   Gamma ray burst from neutron star collision
79)   Global cooling /Ice Age
80)   Global nuclear war
81)   Global warming
82)   Gold /PM recall
83)   Gold /PM restrictions
84)   Government Tyranny
85)   Grand Alignment induced tectonic activity
86)   Great Lakes drainage event (to the Ohio River due to tectonic activity)
87)   Ground surface tilt /rise /subsidence from tectonics /magma movement
88)   Gulf Stream shutdown /subsidence
89)   Hail
90)   Hazmat incident
91)   Heat wave
92)   Home gardening restrictions
93)   Home invasion
94)   Hostage situation
95)   Hostile extraterrestrials
96)   House /apartment /building fire
97)   Hurricane
98)   Hypercane
99)   Ice Storm
100)   Infrastructure collapse /failures
101)   Invasion of the US
102)   Invasive plant and animal species
103)   Kidnapped
104)   Lahar
105)   Landslide /mudslide
106)   Large scale JIT delivery failures
107)   Limited nuclear war /attack
108)   Limnic eruption
109)   Local major accident (aircraft /auto /rail /building)
110)   Local major crime
111)   Local /regional gun grab
112)   Lockdown at school /college campus
113)   Lockdown at work /business
114)   Loss of job
115)   Magnetic pole shift
116)   Major conventional war
117)   Major economic depression
118)   Major nuclear power plant incident
119)   Major Tax Rate increases
120)   Martial Law
121)   Massive tectonic activity
122)   Massive /rapid increase in the poverty level /numbers
123)   Maunder Minimum low sunspot cycle triggered ice age
124)   Medical emergency
125)   Mega Quake (New Madrid seismic zone, Cascadia subduction zone)
126)   Mega Tsunami (La Palma, West Antarctic Ice Sheet)
127)   Mega Volcano (Yellowstone Caldera)
128)   Methane Hydrate release
129)   Mississippi River bed change
130)   National bankruptcy /default
131)   Nationwide /global economic breakdown
132)   Nemesis induced Oort Cloud meteorite rain
133)   New colonial activity (France /Spain /Portugal /Italy /Germany /Japan /China /Russia /Great Britain /Brazil /Venezuela)
134)   New, more restrictive assault weapons ban
135)   New World Order (NWO)
136)   Out of control bio-genetics /bio-technology
137)   Out of control Nano-technology /robotics
138)   Overpopulation
139)   Ozone layer depletion
140)   Pandemic /Syndemic pandemic
141)   Peaceful extraterrestrials
142)   Peak oil
143)   Personal financial breakdown
144)   Personal /family catastrophic illness
145)   Personal impact crimes
146)   Pestilence
147)   Political unrest /backlash
148)   Pyroclastic flow
149)   Racial war
150)   Rainforest deforestation
151)   Rampant inflation
152)   Rapid Population Decline
153)   Refugees
154)   Regional climate change
155)   Released /escaped dangerous zoo /circus animals
156)   Religious war
157)   Resource war
158)   Rogue Military Activity
159)   Rotational pole shift
160)   Runaway GM food plant failure /cross contamination
161)   Safe deposit box (non-bank) restrictions /closures
162)   Sand /dust storms /Haboob
163)   Sea level drop
164)   Sea level rise
165)   Second coming
166)   Seceding of one or more states from the US
167)   Sentient computer(s) take over
168)   Severe Lightning
169)   Sheriffs lose arrest rights /authority
170)   Shipwrecked /marooned
171)   Shortages of goods and services for a variety of reasons
172)   Sinkholes
173)   Slow rise flood
174)   Social break down
175)   Solar radiation increase /decrease
176)   State bankruptcy /default
177)   Strikes /boycotts /embargoes /price controls
178)   Sub-atomic particle research accident
179)   Sudden regional major population shift
180)   Super-storm
181)   Tailings pond dam failure /collapse
182)   Terrorism of all types
183)   The Anti-Christ
184)   Tornado
185)   Total gun ban /confiscation
186)   Train wreck
187)   Travel restrictions
188)   Tsunami
189)   UN Small Arms Treaty
190)   UN /One World Government
191)   US civilian coup
192)   US military coup
193)   US revolution
194)   Utilities failures
195)   Vehicle breakdown /stranded
196)   Volcano
197)   Water shortages
198)   Water system contamination /poisoning
199)   Wealth redistribution (by currency exchange /tax rates)
200)   Weapons restrictions
201)   Weather Modification attack
202)   Widespread civil unrest /riots
203)   Wild animal rampage
204)   World Population dramatic increase
205)   Zombies /vampires /werewolves /other supernatural dangers (Just kidding! Sort of. The mere belief in can be/cause a disaster.)

It has come to my attention recently that there is another whole list of potential disasters that, while some are mentioned in the above list as primary events to prepare for, there are some things that will not likely occur, or even be possible before a major disaster occurs and /or we wind up in a PAW situation. The things listed below are not only possible, but rather likely in many different scenarios.

1)   Millions of abandoned pets eating food supplies needed by humans, and possibly attacking humans

2)   Hundreds of thousands of swimming pools, especially in urban and suburban areas left with water in them that will breed billions of mosquitoes that could carry diseases

3)   Abandoned nuclear power plants that were not safely shut down manually or automatically at the outset of the disaster that could eventually have radioactive materials escape and contaminate a locality, and possibly a larger area.

4)   Abandoned dangerous chemicals (including chemical and/or biological warfare materials), the containers of which could be damaged, releasing the chemicals into residential areas, or contaminating areas to a very dangerous degree. Could be from damaged /deteriorating /flooded research facilities; manufacturing plants, transport vehicles, end-user plants, farms and farm supply facilities (in case of dangerous farm chemicals), or military storage sites.

5)   Abandoned toxic/flammable waste dumps that could release their contents into the environment

6)   Landfills that could catch fire and burn uncontrollably, releasing hazardous smoke, even radioactive smoke in some cases

7)   Oil and gas pipelines, that once they are without constant maintenance will deteriorate and begin leaking their contents into the environment

8)   Explosion risk from heavy explosive gasses in low areas and buildings (propane, methane, etc.)

9)   While I do not believe Nuclear Winter will occur due to fires started by nuclear weapons, in the absence of highly trained and well equipped firefighters, there is almost a certainty that there will be huge forest fires that will burn out of control, often in the vary areas where preppers set up their facilities

10)   Areas with closely spaced residential, commercial, and industrial buildings could easily be destroyed on a very large scale without benefit of modern firefighting capabilities

11)   Raw sewage released from damaged /deteriorating /flooded treatment facilities /collection pipe system

12)   Water and food sources contaminated from any of the above

13)   Human food (plant and animal) mutated into dangerous/unhealthy types by any of the above

14)   Explosion risk from heavy explosive gasses in low areas and buildings (propane, methane, etc.)

15)   High risk of physical danger going into damaged /deteriorating /flooded buildings /structures /locations that have high value salvage materials /goods

16)   High risk of physical danger using damaged /deteriorating /missing /flooded highway hazard crossings (bridges /over passes /etc.) to avoid going around

17)   Release of dangerous animals/pets from public zoos /private zoos /homes

18)   The development of the ever popular MZB (Mutant Zombie Bikers) (no offense to real bikers) and other raiding type groups

19)   The spread of aggressive religious groups

20)   Anarchy (for a while)

21)   Loss of animal /plant /human habitats due to local contaminates

22)   Loss of animal /plant /human habitats due to changes in weather

Just my opinion.

Jerry D Young

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and always remember TANSTAAFL
("There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch" Quote by Manny, from The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress by Robert A Heinlein)

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Jerry D Young

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and always remember TANSTAAFL

(TANSTAAFL - There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch - Robert A. Heinlein)

Offline TWP

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Re: Article - Which TEOTWAWKI event is most likely?
« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2018, 06:39:50 PM »
Darn it Jerry!  Do you know how long it will take to code all those into my Prepper Risk Assessment spreadsheet  ;D ;D

I think I'll make a website that lets anyone create their own assessment.
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Offline Jerry D Young

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Re: Article - Which TEOTWAWKI event is most likely?
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2018, 06:50:02 PM »
I do know. That is why I only have the ones in mine that I have. lol

It took me approximately 41 years to come up with the list. It would take me twice that to put them all into the spreadsheet.

Just my opinion.
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Jerry D Young

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and always remember TANSTAAFL

(TANSTAAFL - There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch - Robert A. Heinlein)