Since the subject has come up, here are some of my thoughts from my prep manual on floods:
Floods
Most people have seen television coverage or newspaper and magazine pictures of what large flash floods can do. Much more common are the slow building floods along rivers during the local rainy seasons, such as along the Mississippi River. Of course, the deep widespread floods inflict huge amounts of damage, but even two or three inches of muddy water, such as occurs during a heavy storm, ruins furniture, carpets, and appliances. Not to mention the inconvenience and dangers associated with flooded sewers, escaped chemical products, contaminated drinking water, and downed power and telephone lines.
If at all possible, have flood insurance on your property from the National Flood Insurance Program. If it will be a minor slow-forming flood, stack sandbags out away from the house, with provisions to get the auto out if necessary, probably with a ramp. Do not put sandbags against the house. It puts too much pressure on the walls. If you have a basement and any possibility exists of large amounts of water entering, remove things that could be harmed and flood the basement with clean water.
In a major flood, or one involving any deep or fast flowing water you should secure the household and flood the basement with clean water if time permits, and then evacuate. Check now with your insurance company to see if pre-flooding the basement will void your policy. If it does, do not consider pre-flooding.
Atmospheric River storm/severe flooding
Basically a new awareness of what often causes severe flooding. Usually directed and controlled by the effects of the Jet Stream, what would normally be storms spread over a wide area wind up in that ‘River’ and begin to track almost as if on rails. If you watch the radar of storms creating severe flooding, you might see the series of super cells marching one after another in almost a straight line.
This atmospheric river can dump millions upon millions of gallons of water on the same length of ground for hours and days. Have Once the ground is saturated at the surface, the run off begins. And if the local streams and rivers do not have enough surplus carrying capacity, the flooding begins, and then rapidly gets worse.
What to do. This can usually be seen coming, if one stays aware of the weather at all times, so it is not really a flash flood overall, though specific areas can wind up with flash floods. It isn’t a slow rise flood either, once it really gets started, though it might be at first.
Like hurricanes, if you can lock down the home place and evacuate, that is a wise decision. If you have plans to stay during such an event, the property must be set up and prepared in a manner to minimize the risks, as well as control the water. Building up a mound, high enough to clear a one thousand year flood, or building a flood wall or properly constructed levee around the property will work. If you allow for that higher than normal flood.
The last flood waters aren’t an indication of just how high the water can get in most areas. Using the ten year, twenty-five year, fifty year, and one hundred year flood statistics simply is not good enough to be safe from that thousand year flood. By a long shot.
Now, if you have not, or cannot make those kinds of preparations, there are some things you can do to be ready for such a flood. One is to have wide doors so furniture and everything else can be moved out easily and taken to high ground. Knowing where that high ground is should be part of your planning.
Keep anything you cannot easily replace in containers that can be stacked above the flood waters or taken out to high ground. I know having keepsakes on display is nice, but I suggest you only have a few on display at any one time and have the container for them kept handy, with everything else kept in their water proof containers.
If living in a known flood plain, and even if not, having a good boat ready for self-rescue if the flood does catch you by surprise is not the crazy thing some would have you think. My father kept a small boat tied up at the back door of our house in the Bootheel of Missouri due to the frequent floods. We never had to use it in an emergency situation, as he kept track of the weather all the time and we were already in response mode by the time the water began to come up.
Just as a boat on dry land might seem silly, many will consider having personal flotation devices (PFDs/Life Jackets) at the ready in case of floods a bit silly. But if you notice the first thing that rescuers doing water rescues do is to get a PFD on the victim and then a safety harness and line for retrieval if the person gets away from the rescuer. Often times protective headgear is added. This is not a bad idea to follow if you are working in and around flood waters on your own.
The best thing to do in such an Atmospheric River severe flood is to lock down and evacuate. If you do not, be prepared for life threatening things to happen.
Flash flood
The very name is rather scary. Water that comes up to a dangerous level in a very short period of time. Literally seconds, sometimes. A flash flood is difficult, almost impossible, to survive, by its very nature. The only real defense against them is to avoid them religiously. Know how, when, and where they form, and avoid the places they can form during the times when they can form. This usually means keeping an eye on weather patterns over a wide area, as much as twenty miles away in some instances where flatlands border mountains.
Rains on the mountains can dump tremendous amounts of water into streams and gullies that often have no visible water in them most of the time. But those gullies and streams are where they are because of those types or rain and floods. If there are rain clouds over the mountains, stay out of streams, rivers bottoms, and gullies on the flats.
If you are down in a vulnerable area, and you ever hear a noise you cannot immediately identify, assume it is a flash flooded headed toward you and climb, climb, climb, as fast as you can, while warning any others in your party to do the same. If it is a rock falling down a cliff face, or a spooked rabbit, then you’ve just expended a bit of extra energy. If it is a flash flood, you might just save your life and the lives of others.
And unless you are on the very top of the mountain, and it begins to rain or the snow cover begins to melt within a few miles of your position, stay out of the canyons and low spots on the mountain, just as you would on the plain.
Don’t think that flash floods only happen in canyons in the wilderness. When a severe storm system begins dumping rain at the rate of several inches per hour onto a developed area, that rain can overload storm drains quickly, and the runoff become a raging river along the roadways in only minutes. And when only six inches of fast moving water is enough to knock a person off their feet, and a foot to begin moving vehicles, flash floods in the cities and towns are just as dangerous as those in the wilds.
People will often drive or walk through flooded areas, sometimes while the floods are still growing. It is a dangerous practice. Flood waters are usually muddy and a person cannot see just what might be below that water. Or not be. Heavy floods, especially flash floods, can wash out roads, streets, and sidewalks, with no visible indication that there is deeper, faster flowing water there. More than enough to sweep a person away, and often even take large vehicles downstream at speeds that preclude any chance of rescue.
So, as the National Weather Service and Weather Channel Meteorologists say, if you can’t see the road, turn around, don’t drown. It is excellent advice.
Slow rise flood
A slow rise flood is pretty much what the name implies. More water than normal that rises slowly, usually with little current, though that is not always the case, especially after the water gets deep. Deal with the possibility the same way you would a severe flood. Be ready for it. You just should have a bit more time to get the evacuation or the movement of goods done.
Biblical flood
A thousand year flood is super serious. A biblical flood, what I consider to be anything equal to or worse than a ten thousand year flood, is one of the things that if you are in the wrong spot, at the wrong time, you just are not going to survive. At least, not unless you have an Ark. Which isn’t necessarily impossible, but just expensive, and anyone building one is subject to mental health related questions. Unless you choose to live at six thousand feet MSL or above, you will be at risk. It is a very low risk, of course, but is one of those things that if they happen, as has been noted, you will not survive and should have your earthly and spiritual affairs in order.
A couple more snippets from the manual:
Floods can drive snakes and small animals that normally are not a problem onto the same dry areas humans have taken refuge. Sometimes even larger wild animals will show up, too. Usually more interested in just getting away from the flood, when in close contact with humans, bad things will happen.
And during floods, opened containers contaminate the floodwaters. Whole barrels, drums, or other containers, can be swept away and deposited at random.
And a couple of things I mentioned on one of the NNPG Amateur Radio Net meetings:
Besides the PFDs for everyone, if you must travel on a flooded road when you cannot see the pavement through the water, make sure you have a long rope, and a probe pole. Secure someone with the rope that can use the pole to advance slowly through the water, checking for stability of the road well out in front of the vehicle. If they were to get swept away, having on the PFD, and even a bicycle helmet, they can be recovered with the rope. This is especially important if the person is wearing tall boot and especially waders, and goes down. The boots/waders tend to fill with water and the waders can balloon, making it next to impossible for the person to effect a rescue on their own.
This roped off, long pole probing technique is also a very good idea when crossing any type of questionable ground, from mud, to river bottoms, to volcanic ash, to deep snow, to iced over water courses. It is so much easier to recover one person when they sink into something than it is to recover a vehicle from the same fate.
And since this thread is about climate, here are some of my thoughts from the prep manual on topic:
Regional climate change
The climate changes regularly. Often on a regional scale. It can be hotter or colder, dryer or wetter, more windy or constant calm. And every one of these situations affect food production, and often water availability.
Global warming
Sea level rise
More controversy. Climate change/human caused global warming. I will state my position and then get to the nitty-gritty. We have been in a warming trend. But humans had very little, if any, part in causing it. There are only four things that can change the climate on Earth. Solar radiation levels, volcanic activity, Earth Core temperature changes, and ocean current changes.
And the kicker. When the original data is evaluated, without any spin for political or financial reasons, it becomes apparent that the Earth is actually in a cooling trend. So, that said, on to the information.
If it does turn out that we are in a major warming trend, things will get bad. The weather affects everything. Naturally, more severe weather will occur, mostly with addition rainfall and violent storms caused by the available heat and moisture that will be in the air from increased evaporation.
One of the specific effects of global warming will be a gradual sea level rise. Which, if the trend lasts long enough, will have major consequences along every seacoast on Earth. A very high percentage of major cities are on seacoasts. And much of the trade for the internal areas of a country goes through those cities. Sometimes with only four feet of elevation above normal high tides, any significant sea level increase is going to create flooding conditions during high tides, and especially storm surges. It is not beyond the realm of possibility to see twenty feet or more of rise over the next century, given a constant global temperature increase.
Global cooling/Ice Age
Gulf Stream shutdown/subsidence
Maunder Minimum low sunspot cycle triggered ice age
Sea level drop
Just as global warming would create problems, global cooling could create its own set of problems. They would mostly be subtle. Record low temperatures in some areas. Longer and earlier cold snaps. Drier atmosphere, with fewer major storms, and storms of somewhat less intensity.
Some of this actually sounds like it would be good. But if the trend does exist, and continues, as I think it will, things would go from a bit troublesome to deadly. Once the cold weather shortened growing seasons and lack of moisture for the crops starts, food supplies will begin to become scarce and expensive. What that means has already been discussed.
So have fuel shortages. Heating fuel supplies will be drawn down quickly, and prices will rise, as demand increases in places where it is already a major budget expense, plus the many additional areas that will need substantially more heating than in previous years.
The same four things that can affect climate on Earth, and create global warming, can also create global cooling. There are several key ocean currents that keep areas warmer than they would be without the warm current, and areas cooler than they would be without the cold current moderating the regional weather. The Gulf Stream is a major example.
Should the Gulf Stream be diverted or simply sink well below the surface, the heat it brings to Eastern Canada and Western Europe would be gone, and the weather would revert to the same weather those latitudes have where the Stream does not have an influence.
Solar radiation has already been mentioned. When the sun is producing higher levels of energy that get to earth, climate tends to warm up. And the reverse is true. When the sun’s activity level is down, things cool down on earth. In a Maunder Minimum equivalent low sunspot cycle, the levels of the sun’s energy reaching Earth is very low, comparatively speaking, and temperature around the globe plummet. Up to the point of triggering a mini-Ice Age.
Where global warming would raise sea levels, global cooling would reduce sea levels as more water becomes trapped as snow and ice on land. A bit of a drop is not to significant. Would actually be a help in coastal areas prone to floods.
But if there is much of a drop, then ports and harbors can start to become unusable. Keeping them usable would cost billions of dollars in dredging and rebuilding costs.
What to do, what to do, what to do? Heat or cold, wet or dry? Which do you prepare for? Well, since we cannot pin it down precisely, and the fact that climate does change, building a home that can withstand both extremes is one of the solutions. Having long term, renewable supplies, and the equipment to deal with either, is probably the best choice.
Of course, living in what are already extremes, one way or the other, probably is not a good idea. Living in an area with four distinct seasons, that has some leeway in either direction would be best. And then build for both extremes.
The only other option I see is to have a ‘warmer weather’ place, and a ‘colder weather’ place. When it becomes obvious which direction the climate is going, stay at the appropriate place. Again, with supplies and equipment for that extreme.
Just my opinion.
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