My thoughts on Precious Metals per the 1/21/15 NNPG Amateur Radio net meeting
Precious metals, PMs for short, come up regularly in discussions about prepping. Some consider them an absolute necessity to their prepping, others believe acquiring PMs is the biggest mistake being made in prepping. There will never be total agreement on the subject. Hopefully this article will provide some information to allow a reasonable discussion and evaluation of precious metals and their relative usefulness to preppers.
First, a note about the PM issue. I'm a believer myself, though I can't afford any at the moment. But thousands of people are obtaining PMs for situations in the future. Not all of them involve a PAW as envisioned by some. There will still be regular sources to buy and sell PMs as a financial transaction, not a deal for goods in many scenarios.
Also, if it is the PAW, those people that do have PMs and understand them will do exchanges with others that also understand them. The fact that the majority cannot tell the difference, or trust them in general means they simply will not use them. They will use other methods of doing transactions such as barter and trade, even though they become cumbersome beyond belief without a medium of exchange.
The inability for some to use PMs for whatever reason does not negate their use by others that do know and understand the way of PMs.
First, a few definitions are probably in order. There can even be some confusion as to what precious metals are. Pretty much everyone that thinks about the subject agrees that gold and silver are precious metals.
But there are some others that include other metals in the category of what might be useful for a prepper. These include platinum, palladium, and rhodium. These three metals are all considered ‘precious’ by nature of the cost to obtain them.
Some consider some of the base metals as precious in terms of usefulness or for their strategic value. Copper, lead, brass, aluminum, and steel.
For this article, only gold and silver will be considered, as they are, by far, the most likely items in acceptable form to play a part in any prepper scenario.
Why even consider PMs as part of a prepper stockpile? You cannot eat them. They will not keep you hydrated. They will not keep you warm when out in the cold. They do not earn you income in the sense of producing some type of return for just being there. These are all reasons that many people think they are the last thing you want to spend your hard earned dollars on.
There are a few reasons. One is the same reason money was invented in the first place. Money is a medium of exchange. It makes barter between two people possible when the first has something the second wants, but the second does not have anything the first wants. But another person does have something the first wants but the first doesn’t have anything the third wants. The first gives the second what he wants, gets money in exchange, and then gives that money to the third to get the item first wants. And so on. It only works when the participants agree on the medium of exchange.
Some places use cattle as the medium of exchange. Some Native Americans used wampum. Salt has been used. Service (labor) has been used. The list goes on. Gold and silver became commonplace because they were very permanent whereas salt and cattle were not. There will be “money” after a disaster because there are just too many cases where one party will not have what the other party wants in terms of goods or services. Since gold and silver have been used in the past and are relatively rare, and relatively durable, many people will be willing to agree to them as a medium of exchange again.
Many believe that barter and trade will be the initial means to conduct business during and right after a TEOTWAWKI event. But as things settle down, there is a good chance that gold and silver will reappear as the currency of the land.
During the initial stages of a disaster paper money will probably still be the recognized medium, and then it will lose value. Some will then take precious metals, but some will not. There will be a lot of one-on-one barter, but as it becomes commonplace the old problem of not being able to make direct one-to-one barters will crop up and something will be chosen to be the medium of exchange. Money. Some think it could be gasoline. Some think .22LR ammunition. A whole world of other things. It is likely that people will revert to what they know has worked before, and still works to this day in places. Gold and silver coinage.
There will be people that simply will not take PMs, nor have them to give, and others that will value their PM holdings extremely high because of what they paid to get it before the PAW. Gold and silver will have their value restated in some needed commodity as things settle down. The value of things will eventually be stated in ounces of gold or silver not dollars or other currency.
Although there are people that use precious metals to generate an income, through buying and selling, it is probably better for preppers not to consider PMs an 'investment' in the sense of making money from it. Face it, one ounce of gold is not worth that much more than it was a couple hundred years ago. It will still buy essentially the same set of goods now that it did then. But there are ways to incorporate precious metals in you more traditional investments and retirement financial planning. It is a subject for a different article.
Gold and silver are for the time when only PMs will get you what you want. It will not matter what you paid for it in the past world, only its value at the time of the event will matter. Might be life and death, eating or starving, medical care or home treatment, getting there or not getting there. The list is endless.
So, some say, just make sure you have everything you need beforehand so you will not need to barter or trade or mess with PMs. Well, priorities change. What seems a well-rounded set of supplies may have holes in it that we simply have no way of seeing right now. Comes down to 'Better to have than not have", and 'Situations change".
So, if a person decides they want to have some PMs on hand, what are some good choices, and how does one go about acquiring them?
For silver, there are quite a few options. Pre-1965 circulated 90% silver US dimes, quarters, and halves. 40% silver halves. Silver dollars. US mint one ounce Silver Eagles. A wide variety of other silver rounds and bullion bars.
The choices are a bit more limited for gold, but there are still plenty of options. Circulated legal tender gold coins from several countries, including the US. US Mint Gold Eagle bullion coins in one-tenth ounce, one-quarter ounce, one-half ounce, and one ounce sizes. Several other countries produce these types of bullion coins. There are various gold chips and bars in weights ranging from a gram to the four-hundred ounce Good Delivery Bars that national banks deal with.
For most practical purposes, the circulated US pre-1965 silver dimes, quarters, and one-ounce Silver Eagles, and one-tenth ounce US Gold Eagles would be the way to go, unless and until one can afford to put major money into PMs.
There are many places where the items can be obtained. On-line sources, such as Kitco, gun shows and coin shows come to town occasionally. And there are local stores including pawn shops and coin shops.
It really pays to shop around. There can be a very wide range of prices for similar items, depending on the mark up the seller has. Most prices are based on one of the advertised Spot Prices listed in financial papers and on-line. But the premium one pays over and above this is where the difference comes in.
Also be aware that some sellers will take an order that you place when the price is at a given point, but will charge you the price at the time they ship the item. Be very careful to find out the actual price you will be paying. The reputable sellers guarantee the price at the moment of sale, not shipment.
There are some outfits that will take your money and ‘hold’ the precious metals for you for future possession, for safety. Your choice. But if it is not in your hands, is it really your stuff? When it comes to preppers and precious metals, having the actual goods at hand is really what it is all about. Which precludes many of the other ways to include PMs in your portfolio. Mutual funds with precious metals holdings, precious metals mining shares, warehoused PMs, and even PMs in bank safe deposit boxes can leave them totally useless to a prepper when they might be needed the worst.
And why would gold and silver coins in a person’s bank safe deposit boxes not be available? Banks go belly up from time to time and one cannot access their safe deposit boxes until the situation is resolved.
The Federal Government has imposed ‘Bank Holidays’ before, where access is restricted. And there has been a gold recall before. Some do not believe it could happen again. Make up your own mind. But if you believe that precious metals might be of use in the aftermath of a disaster, you really should consider just how important it is to have them on hand, if they are needed.
Which brings up another point in the acquisition process. Again, there are differing opinions on the need to keep one’s PM purchases a secret. Many preppers keep their food and other preps as much of a secret as they can. That mostly concerns who knows about them locally. There are a few that go to great lengths to mask in some way their purchases.
The same is true for many when it comes to buying PMs. If you purchase on the internet, there will be a record. And in some cases, when you buy locally, there will, as well. If this concerns you, there are often local places where you can walk in, pay cash, with or without a cash ticket, and walk out with the PMs in your pocket and no one the wiser that it is you that have them.
There are already plans in the works where all PM purchases will have to be recorded and turned into the Federal government. Makes one wonder why that might be needed.
When it comes to PMs, unless you are wealthy, start slow. A few silver dimes & quarters at a time. When you feel it is time to get gold coins, stay with the small denominations. And remember that there will be some people that won’t trust or want them.
Dimes will be needed desperately for the small stuff. Lots of them. Quarters for slightly larger purchases. And US Mint one ounce Silver Eagles for larger purchases.
As for half dollars, because of the fact that there are 40% silver ones out there, and not everyone will know the difference. It might be best not to plan on using them at all in the PAW. Some will. Just be aware of the facts. And the same goes for Silver Dollars. Going to be a lot of controversy over their value, as a lot of them are going to be in much better shape than others, and in most cases, very much better shape than dimes and quarters. Even halves.
There are many people that plan to limit their silver accumulation to dimes, quarters, and Eagles. That is not to say that some will not take the others in trade, but only in certain circumstances where the person with those coins understands and agrees to the value.
Thousands of people are obtaining PMs for situations in the future. Not all of them involve a PAW as envisioned by some. There will still be regular sources to buy and sell PMs as a financial transaction, not a deal for goods in many scenarios.
Also, if it is the PAW, those people that do have PMs and understand them will do exchanges with others that also understand them. The fact that the majority cannot tell the difference, or trust them in general means they simply will not use them. They will use other methods of doing transactions such as barter and trade, even though they become cumbersome beyond belief without a medium of exchange.
Many people would not accept collector stamps in a transaction for a can of food, since they have no clue about them, but a circulated US silver dime minted before 1965 many people probably would, even though there is a miniscule risk of counterfeit. There is that risk now with 20 dollar and one-hundred dollar bills, yet we still use them.
The refusal for some to use PMs for whatever reason does not negate their use by others that do know and understand the way of PMs.
As stated previously, there is a good chance that PMs will not have much use, except among hard core believers, in the initial stages of a PAW creating event. Later on, as things stabilize, and the dollar is no long being accepted, PMs will probably begin being used as money. Local groups of people will set the value of labor and commodities by trial and error at first, but will eventually reach agreements with other groups as to what value each of the metals has.
Until the community sets values on the various coins, I plan to start using them at some point with the following provisos:
Based on my research on pre-1965 circulated 90% silver US coins.
(To get round numbers I used 720 ounces per $1,000 face value of halves, quarters, and dimes. 715 ounces is more accepted, but make calculations much harder, and in the real world, until melting them back into bullion picks up again, I think the microscopic difference per coin won’t be a difference.)
Personally I’m figuring (hoping) on using the ratio of thirty-six ounces of silver to one ounce of gold, just to keep it simple. One hundred pre-1965 half dollars per ounce of gold, two hundred pre-1965 quarters per ounce of gold, or five hundred pre-1965 dimes. And, of course, 36 1-oz Silver Eagles per ounce of gold. That is ten halves for a tenth ounce gold coin, twenty quarters, or fifty dimes.
With the following the base rates of exchange:
1 90% silver dime good for a decent meal (0.0020 oz gold)
1 90% silver quarter for a hour of medium labor such as gardening (0.0050 oz gold)
1 90% silver quarter for one days worth of decent food
1 90% silver quarter for one gallon of fuel
as bench marks. Everything else will be similarly calculated, including large purchases with gold, some of which will simply be whatever the market will bear, as decided by the two parties of the transaction. If they are both happy, it is a good deal.
Based on:
0.0720 oz silver per 90% silver dime
0.1800 oz silver per 90% silver quarter
0.3600 oz silver per 90% silver half
Where a $1,000 face value bag of uncirculated US pre-1965 silve dimes, quarters, and halves contains 723.4 oz of silver. The going rate of circulated coins is 715 oz of silver per bag, but splitting the difference at 720 oz per $1,000 face has the numbers above, making calculations very easy. This is a miniscule difference unless dealing with whole bags, with the intention of melting them down. For day to day use in the PAW, when the time is right, I think the numbers based on 720 oz per $1,000 face value will work better with no disadvantage to the individual customer.
With that disclaimer:
Dimes have 0.0720 ounces of silver or 13.8889 dimes for1 ounce of silver
Quarters have 0.1800 ounces of silver or 5.5556 quarters for1 ounce of silver
Halves have 0.3600 ounces of silver or 2.7778 halves for1 ounce of silver
Dollars have 0.7734 ounces of silver or 1.2930 dollars for1 ounce of silver
Silver Eagles have 1.0000 ounces of silver or 1.0000 Eagle for1 ounce of silver
Using a direct conversion, with silver at $20.00 spot:
A dime is worth $1.44
A quarter is worth $3.60
A half is worth $7.20
A dollar is worth $15.47
(Similar numbers are available using 715 ounces of silver per $1,000 face value in the spreadsheet in the Files section under More.)
With these numbers in mind, and the fact that the conversion ratio of silver to goods will be widely variable at first, before stabilizing, I think dimes will be needed desperately for the small stuff. And halves, because of the fact that there are 40% silver ones out there, and not everyone will know the difference, I don’t plan on using them at all in the PAW. Others that want to, can. Just too much hassle for me. And the same goes for Silver Dollars. Going to be a lot of controversy over their value, as a lot of them are going to be in much better shape than others, and in most cases, very much better shape than dimes and quarters. Even halves.
So I plan to limit my accumulation to dimes, quarters, and Eagles. That is not to say I would not take the others in trade, but only in certain circumstances where the person with those coins understands and agrees to the value.
For up to $500 FRNs in silver, I would do:
50% in dimes
25% in quarters
25% in Eagles
Over $500 up to $2,000 I would do:
40% in dimes
30% in quarters
30% in Eagles
Over $2,000 I would do
25% in dimes
25% in quarters
50% in Eagles
Over $5,000 for PM’s I’d start adding gold with similar ratios to 1/10 ounce, ¼ ounce, and 1 ounce Gold Eagles as used for the silver dimes, quarters and Silver Eagles, keeping the gold/silver ratio at 80% silver / 20% gold up to $10,000, then 50%/50%, and ultimately 25% silver to 75% gold when you get into the big money.
When using PMs on a regular basis, having an agreement for any given barter/trade day on what specific PM coins are worth in terms of other commodities, and posting it might be advantageous. Of course any two people making a barter/trade that includes PMs will apply their own value to the coins, but having a standard value as a reference point for those not familiar with PMs might make it much easier for them.
A spreadsheet with additional coin information is attached. The spreadsheet is also converted to a .pdf for reference that can be printed out.
Just my opinion.
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