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Coronavirus - lots going on.

Coronavirus - lots going on.
« on: January 25, 2020, 12:20:34 PM »
Coronavirus - not a virus causing problems with Corona beer.
It's bad enough in country of origin (China) that they've quarantined a multi-million population city.It's spreading.  It's in the US and Europe.I think it will reach pandemic status.
 The first url below is a generic blurb about coronavirus:https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus#1
The following is one of the better write ups on the current strain from China.  AND Yes, I know its aljazeera  -  still a good write up.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/coronavirus-symptoms-vaccines-risks-200122194509687.html
I'm being extra careful concerning hand cleaning and such when oot and aboot (out and about).
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WolfBrother

Most folks are happy being a part of the Great Shepherds Flock.
Some folks choose to be wolves and prey on the flock.
Some folks choose to defend the flock and confront the wolf.

I am a SheepDog.

Offline beorn

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Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2020, 11:24:30 PM »
Yes lots going on. This has me a little worried. A massive pandemic is more scary to me than nuclear war because I may not abandon my job and head for the hills soon enough.
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Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2020, 08:11:49 PM »
More worried about the hair-on-fire response on some of the larger forums than I am the virus itself. Medical people are starting to back away from even trying to inform/educate. I consider myself to be one of them. No insult intended towards anyone here.

RR
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Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2020, 11:10:18 PM »
More worried about the hair-on-fire response on some of the larger forums than I am the virus itself. Medical people are starting to back away from even trying to inform/educate. I consider myself to be one of them. No insult intended towards anyone here.

RR
Yup there is some hair-on-fire responses.  Any big disease like this can and will catch the news and the calm, factual, unbiased news types will then report how the sky is falling due to that disease.
 RR, what do you think?  Think it'll reach pandemic status?
« Last Edit: February 06, 2020, 11:12:15 PM by WolfBrother »
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WolfBrother

Most folks are happy being a part of the Great Shepherds Flock.
Some folks choose to be wolves and prey on the flock.
Some folks choose to defend the flock and confront the wolf.

I am a SheepDog.

Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2020, 11:54:18 PM »
It has gone epidemic, but I remain unsure about pandemic potential. Yes, we now have cases in various countries but they are all recent travelers out of infected areas. In the great majority of cases they have been caught early and are under quarantine. It is not airborne, because as you know droplet spread is not the same as airborne, i.e. it is not like spores blowing in the wind.

There is a great deal of deliberate misinformation going around. People seem to think anything on Twitter is de facto valid. Some is, some is not. Lots of so-called 'experts' coming out with their prognostications, and none of them actually know of which they talk.

Wife and I ran out and added to our preps last week - cat food, replaced disinfectants and nitrile gloves and such that I used this past year playing hospice nurse for my father, and a few things like that. No masks added, no storage foods per se other than to replace some wet pack cans that we have used. Took the opportunity to buy some specialty items from Sam's that we only get there (edibles). Pretty much sitting back and watching which way the wind blows. We can go into protective self-quarantine if we have to, the key being "have to."

RR
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Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2020, 12:41:20 PM »
WB edited to specific:
It has gone epidemic, but I remain unsure about pandemic potential. Yes, we now have cases in various countries but they are all recent travelers out of infected areas. In the great majority of cases they have been caught early and are under quarantine.
That's how I've been seeing things but trying to get some folks to understand the difference is "fun".


It is not airborne, because as you know droplet spread is not the same as airborne, i.e. it is not like spores blowing in the wind.
I understand the difference  but trying to get some folks to understand the difference is "fun".

 

...Pretty much sitting back and watching which way the wind blows. We can go into protective self-quarantine if we have to, the key being "have to."RR
Yes - me also.  There has been a fairly large outbreak of the flu here in Austin.  No where near epidemic, mainly centered around some of the more "progressive" schools where lots of parents are anti-Vaxers.  The only nod to ALL of this is I'm wearing gloves when I go to the store.  Even with the cleaners provided, the gloves provide me with a reminder not to absent mindedly do hand to face/nose/mouth.
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WolfBrother

Most folks are happy being a part of the Great Shepherds Flock.
Some folks choose to be wolves and prey on the flock.
Some folks choose to defend the flock and confront the wolf.

I am a SheepDog.

Offline pengyou

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  • Think outside of the box to avoid being put in one
Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2020, 11:45:02 AM »
...and you add to it all, almost all of the people who have died are under the age of 6 or over the age of 55ish?  Lots of fear out there, and fear can be more dangerous than any catastrophe.  I am still in China - for 6 more months - in Beijing, about 600 miles away from the "epicenter" of the virus.  The streets are deserted here.   All of the gates to my neighborhood have been locked up, save one.  The neighborhood council has created an entry/exit pass that you must show to leave or enter the area, and your temperature will be taken before you can enter, though seems that is a poor indicator of whether you have the virus or not...everyone wears face masks here or you cannot get services, though facemasks do little to keep you from getting the virus.  Point is - people are frightened, terrified, and one way to help people keep a grip is to let them do something that they feel will help themselves, i.e. get their temperature taken or wear a mask.  Without something for people to grasp in their hands they can easily loose control of themselves.  Makes me wonder...in my thoughts about prepping, what kind of psychological preps am I accumulating?  No only things that are necessary, but things that will address my psychological needs in time of duress.
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In the early days, the settlers would band together and build their houses nearby for safety....it seems that we have to do the opposite now....sad.

Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2020, 01:48:33 PM »
Excellent observations, Peng.

RR
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Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2020, 11:27:20 PM »
RR - what's your take on this now>
I saw where the CDC put it as endemic in parts of Washington state.
I've not seen airborne warnings.I have seen some aerosol warnings.TONS of surface vector transmission warnings.
I've seen if your sick wear a mask so you won't cough/sneeze it into the air around you.
I've seen wear a mask so that you won't not thinking touch your face.I've seen WASH YOUR HANDS RIGHT.I've seen WASH YOUR HANDS RIGHT.I've seen WASH YOUR HANDS RIGHT.I've seen WASH YOUR HANDS RIGHT.I've seen WASH YOUR HANDS RIGHT.I've seen WASH YOUR HANDS RIGHT.I've seen WASH YOUR HANDS RIGHT.I've seen WASH YOUR HANDS RIGHT.You get the idea.
I am interested in your perspective.
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WolfBrother

Most folks are happy being a part of the Great Shepherds Flock.
Some folks choose to be wolves and prey on the flock.
Some folks choose to defend the flock and confront the wolf.

I am a SheepDog.

Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2020, 12:03:08 AM »
I'll try to respond at length on the morrow, but for now I'll offer this:

I am not an expert. Others have been following this much more closely than myself, and my education does not extend to the university level.

That said:

The numbers are being misinterpreted. People look at the number of deaths (reported) vs. the number of cases (verified) and presume that equates to a mortality rate. It does not. The simple explanation is that we really do not have a decent estimation of the number of actual infections, only those that have been verified. Even South Korea is ahead of us in testing potential cases. If we were able to confirm actual infections (we can't, the test kits are either not available, or they were being rationed so many potential cases aren't being either confirmed or found negative) vs. attributed deaths we might actually find the mortality rate below that of a nasty flu. right now anyone who claims certain knowledge the the contrary is lying, either to you or themselves.

RR
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Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2020, 02:52:25 PM »
Thx RR, good take on the "Truth"
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WolfBrother

Most folks are happy being a part of the Great Shepherds Flock.
Some folks choose to be wolves and prey on the flock.
Some folks choose to defend the flock and confront the wolf.

I am a SheepDog.

Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2020, 03:17:38 PM »
Sorry, it’s a dreary day here and I am not getting anything done outside of my recliner. Just checked the 10 day forecast and see up to 3.6 inches of snow forecast for a week from now. I was really hoping we’d be done with this so I could dig in the storage unit in warmer temps. [sigh] Hoping to have a grand downsizing sale come spring. How many Coleman stoves do two people need anyhow? Oh, BTW, storing Coleman fuel in cans doesn’t work in desert temps. Over a few years it WILL evaporate despite being sealed. Actually, a couple cans we had stashed back in the Midwest also didn’t make it through 10 years of storage intact either, and it wasn’t meeces that did it. Still sealed, however… But I digress.

Okay, the panic is beginning, with half of America buying up TP and bottled water. I guess maybe to wipe and wash with? Personally I’d rather use wet wipes than try to play bidet with a water bottle, but whatever.
From what I have seen (it’s been over a week since Sam’s Club now) and have read since: rice, dog food, bottled water, TP, Kleenex, gelled alcohol hand sanitizer, Clorox bleach and disinfectant wipes are all the rage across the country. Some semi-luxury foods that will not last more than weeks at best before spoiling are being snatched up, for the coming isolation in place thing that is being bandied about.

People are still seeking reason to panic rather than listen to reason. They WANT to panic, and if possible blame Trump for everything. I think we are seeing some neo-cons come into the open, and I am not speaking of politicians or newsies.

People are making the mistake of calculating mortality rates using confirmed cases divided by reported deaths. Unfortunately for those figures the actual instances of MILD infection would raise the infected rates significantly, which would drive downward the mortality rates. Many cases are so mild the person doesn’t seek medical attention – and thus truly cannot be confirmed and so don’t show up on the tallies - but on the prepper forums elsewhere I am seeing that telling others you believe you and yours have suffered through a mild case is now de rigeur, sort of like being able to tell friends and family how you were mugged when you visited NYC. It makes for a tale that garners attention, don’t ya know.

No, it is not airborne. Neither is Ebola but we saw people firm in their belief that it was. Still no piles of bodies in the streets of NYC from that one either.

Surface transmission: yep. So is the common cold and seasonal flu. But now, because this is new and scary, people are suddenly everything outside their own cozy castle a minefield of deadly virus particles. So it goes.

Deadlier than flu: see the mortality paragraph. I truly believe people want it to be so they can justify their panic.

We have masks here but then we have for over 20 years, so…. Wife is a substitute teacher and does all grades pre-K through 8th. Including Spec Ed. She hates anything over her face and won’t wear a warming mask in winter even though cold hurts her lungs so getting her to use an N95 will be tricky, but if push comes to shove I won’t give her a choice. More likely she’ll have to stay home instead. Because SpEd kids are too often immune-compromised (part and parcel with Down’s Syndrome) and the SpEd teachers take more sick days than any other area. And she just told me the idiot school nurse has informed people that the virus can live ‘in the air’ for 3 days and that it will proliferate in warmer weather. Somebody needs to redo their Micro class is all I am saying.

No, we don’t wear masks in public because the threat just isn’t there. We don’t wear gloves in public either. We do have hand sanitizer pocket bottles and wipes we can use should we make a Sam’s run or something.

Is it endemic in the US? Yes. Endemic meaning present and lurking in the background, just as we also have had endemic Yellow Fever in the US (a couple tens of thousands died in the mid-South in the later 1800’s from that) and still have Dengue Fever in the US, though admittedly barely so these days.

Lots of political grandstanding over this and even the conservative media is running with it because it is the news of the day that gets the most viewers.

I do know that the medical people I am closest with across the country and internationally are not panicked, nor am I.  Darn few Asian travelers where we live.

Oh, and should anyone be reading Natural News' pandemic site, look closely. Mike Adams is selling fear - period. 10% truth mixed with 90% hype.

RR
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Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2020, 10:31:35 PM »
Okay, the latest from the Lancet is that the Chinese have verified viral shedding in survivors for up to 37 days. The median time is 20 days. This from an article just published on the 9th, a very comprehensive one I might add. The even reported the medications used for treatment in all respects, not just what anti-virals they tried. Seriously good stuff. They used a cohort of 192 cases, of whom 54 passed. Much better information than anything else we have seen thus far as various and sundry docs and "scientists" rush to be the first to publish.

RR
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Offline pengyou

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Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2020, 08:11:36 AM »
One question I am trying to find an answer for...how long can the virus live outside of a host?  At first, all of the articles I read ranged from 12 hours to 18 hours.  Just yesterday I read an article that talked about 9 DAYS!!!  A bit of a difference.
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In the early days, the settlers would band together and build their houses nearby for safety....it seems that we have to do the opposite now....sad.

Re: Coronavirus - lots going on.
« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2020, 09:05:39 AM »
The 9 days is speculative as far as I have been able to determine, and that at lower temps and higher humidity. I say speculative because that is based on 'like' coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS and not the COVID-19 specifically. Otherwise 24-72 hours seems to be agreed upon.

RR
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