A learning experience is unfolding in Texas

[TWP]

The gulf coast of Texas is getting ready to be hit by a good sized storm.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/23/hurricane-storm-surge-watches-issued-for-texas-after-harvey-regenerates-into-tropical-depression.html

You can find plenty of news reports with a simple (non-Google(r) ) search.

I'm seeing reports of stores being emptied of products by last minute "preppers" (yes, they are prepping, but not in a good way).

Watch the news for how the exodus works.  Of course, some will choose not to try to get out of the storms way.  They will be another example of what might happen before, during and after an "event" in your area...

The forecast is for very heavy rains, which means flooding in low lying areas and river drainage systems.

Evacuations may require long distance (more than 30-40 miles) travel to reach safe ground.

This is not the first time this has happened and older residents have experience with what to expect.  Some will try to get away...  Some will not.  In past storms, there has been looting of homes and businesses.  Watch for reports of this happening this time.

[WolfBrother]

I've had an interesting discussion with my SSon who lives in  Cypress. (NW part of Greater Houston area).

He texted that due to the forecast, all the local stores were already out of water.

He has somewhat got a storm box, I think after this one he will keep a better one.

I told him to get to Lowe's and buy 1 food grade 5 gal bucket for each day (7 total) and fill them with water.
That'll take care of daily water needs for the 3 of them (SSon, soon to be SDau-in-law, and dog)
Also to get a 8x10 plastic sheet to line the tub with to hold flush water.
Also to fill their cars up.

I plan to have a bit more frank discussion with him after it's over.

[Jerry D Young]

My brother that lives in Houston, that came with us to Idaho for the eclipse and some camping, has been watching the storm since before he left. He flew back as scheduled yesterday, just in time to get the last few things ready. He knows what he is doing, so I am not too worried. But he is very concerned about some of his friends that are not too prep savy. And the same at his work. I suspect he will wind up carrying several people through this.


Just my opinion.

[Clay]

I left Galveston two weeks ago after being there for almost a month. I'm very glad that I'm missing this one! I hope the folks down there are ready, it's going to be a big one.

[TWP]

Another factor, which may hit us in the wallet.  The gulf coast oil drilling rigs and refineries must react to this storm.

On a short term basis, that means a decrease in the oil flow.  If either the wells or the refineries are damaged, it will likely mean longer term price increases (shock, right?).

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/08/24/hurricane-harvey-likely-to-boost-gas-prices-for-us-drivers.html#&_intcmp=hphz25_4

On a side note, I found the quoted wholesale price on gasoline futures, at only $1.66/gal., to be really low compared to the retail gas prices... I guess I shouldn't be amazed, but I grew up with pre-inflation gas prices.

Needless to say; fill up your tank(s).

[TWP]

The exodus from the Texas coast has been orderly but gasoline is now running out as far as 200 miles away.

Bottled water is also reported to be sold out in stores.

http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2017/08/25/photos-thousands-flee-texas-coast-hurricane-harvey-approaches/

Two points from this:

1)  Have enough gas and assume that there will be stop and go traffic which will reduce your mileage
2)  Carry enough water that you don't need to stop.

If you have a bug-out destination, be sure it is outside of the storm zone.

[TWP]

The wind has been downgraded to Cat 1, but the rains have been significant and are expected to continue.

This makes flooding an immediate problem.  For those who evacuated, they must face the damage when they can return.

This is a quote from Breitbart News:

"National Weather Service officials warned on Friday that some areas of Texas could become uninhabitable for weeks or months due to flooding conditions and structural damage, Breitbart Texas reported."

This points to the need for medium to long term preps and for off-site storage outside of flood prone areas.  Plus, while you may have a storage location with supplies, you may not be able to get to them...  Plan on this in your flood preps.

Evacuated residents are still not being allowed into most areas hit by the winds and rain.  I've only seen on report of death attributed to the storm, at this time.  It is still raining heavily across large areas of Texas.

Even though Texas has been hit by hurricanes in the past, I'm betting that few were ready for this one.  So quickly we forget and some people have never experienced the aftereffect on themselves or their property.

Bringing this home to our area, Reno, Nevada, we do have the occasional flood from snow melt in the Sierras, but it is localized and (somewhat) contained.   We have flood plains to allow the water to flow away from homes.  This is not complete and even though the flood plains are known, new houses and businesses have been built in poor locations.

The last time we had a major flood, we lost several commercial "parks" which had been built right next to the river...  Those parks were a total loss and were razed about four years after the last flood.  There are still many business areas still exposed in the flood plains to the East and South of Reno/Sparks.  It pays to investigate before you invest...

I wonder about how these areas are insured, given the known risk factor for flooding.

Ask Rob Mckevitt about living in a flood zone.  At least they can hitch up and leave on short notice.

[TWP]

This is a short news article which I link to in order to show what can be expected in this kind of event.

http://abc13.com/houston-police-focus-on-saving-lives-battling-looters/2350439/

A couple of things are apparent:

1)  Failing to evacuate before the crisis results in reliance on rescue efforts from other people...

2)  You can expect the problem with looters and should plan on both needing to moving your wealth elsewhere AND losing some things of value which you must leave behind.

Re-evaluate your plans for dealing with such wide-scale (multi-county) disaster.  In this case, it is (was) possible to go far enough away (100-200 miles) to be out of the high immediate danger zone.

Texas now faces the problem of large numbers of homeless, some without transportation.  The numbers being estimated are, right now, around 500,000.  I expect more trouble within this group of people as they are herded into "temporary" shelters and makeshift camps.

Rule of Law (ROL) will be stretched thin and frequently broken.  In the coming months, some of those homeless will leave the Texas area and move (or be moved) to neighboring states.  Expect problems, particularly in the larger cities as they try to support those refugees.  Keep on eye on Dallas, to the north of the flood zone, as many evacuees are moved there.

I hope we learn from this and can apply it to our prepping.

[WolfBrother]

Early yesterday (Sun 8-27) a local weather guy in Austin reported:
The area from just East of Austin, down to San Antonio, to Rock Port., to just north of Houston is slightly larger than South Carolina.
For that area the additional rainfall over the next two to three days is projected to be 20 to 30 inches.

-----

As of yet, there have been no reports of animals walking by two by two.

We're watching a Moderate Length SHTF happening right now.  My definition of moderate length is one that that is a week to as long as 6 months before the majority of the area gets back to normal.

[TWP]

It's a long way to Tennessee:

https://arkencounter.com/

Black humor aside, I'm still amazed at the number of people who chose to remain in place.  The rescue crews are overwhelmed.

Fortunately, the death toll is very low, considering the number of people involved.  Last I heard, it was around six deaths.

I'll be watching this as it unwinds.  I do expect more trouble.  Not to mention that FEMA is being very (suspiciously) quiet.  FEMA is involved, but they aren't appearing in the media to the same degree as during Katrina.  Too much bad PR?

I'm thinking that an small inflatable boat/raft might be a good item for prepping...  I would NOT recommend using life vests for escape because the water is severely contaminated with sewage.

[TWP]

Another factor to expect:  Standard comms (cell, cable and 911) are all down.

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/08/tropical-storm-harvey-takes-out-911-centers-cell-towers-and-cable-networks/

Don't rely on these in this kind of emergency (or any other for that matter).

If you have radio (HAM, DB, FRS, GRMS etc.) they may (might, maybe) remain an option.  Much depends on the kind of "event" and what you need to do with it.  Obviously your base station may be underwater so mobile and handhelds make more sense.

I've not seen any media reports about the HAM system, but I assume it is involved.  Kudos to them all.

[WolfBrother]

It's a long way to Tennessee:

https://arkencounter.com/

That's funny

Black humor aside, I'm still amazed at the number of people who chose to remain in place.  The rescue crews are overwhelmed.

Fortunately, the death toll is very low, considering the number of people involved.  Last I heard, it was around six deaths.

People are people, they saw the forecast track to be a good bit south so......

The greater Houston area has about 4 million people, if 25% were to evacuate where would they go?

I'll be watching this as it unwinds.  I do expect more trouble.  Not to mention that FEMA is being very (suspiciously) quiet.  FEMA is involved, but they aren't appearing in the media to the same degree as during Katrina.  Too much bad PR?

I'm thinking that an small inflatable boat/raft might be a good item for prepping...  I would NOT recommend using life vests for escape because the water is severely contaminated with sewage.

Governor Abbot took an active lead early.  From what I can see Texas not FEMA is in charge.  Better them listening to us than the other way round.

[TWP]

...
The greater Houston area has about 4 million people, if 25% were to evacuate where would they go?

This is something to consider in any widespread disaster.  As a prepper, if I must bug-out, the direction will be dictated by the nature of the event (fire, flood, riots) and the ways (roads) to evacuate.

For us, here in Reno, we have four primary routs (N, S, E, W) with sub-arterials which may be easier than the freeways.  Some locations are limited to fewer routes.  All of that ought to be part of ones prepper plans.

For Houston, there a plenty of roads, but many are flooded now.  Before the storm hit, the best options looked to be North and West, but only if people chose to evacuate early.

After the fact, those who want/need to leave are blocked by both traffic and road closures.  Some must wait for rescue.

I'd like to think that I would leave early enough, but that might be a judgment call based on what news I can find.  Houston's mayor appears to have advised shelter-in-place right up until it was too late to go...  So I don't trust the news or the politicians who think they are in control...

[edit] splng go not

[WolfBrother]

Austin has had blue skies for the past 3 to 5 hours.

Looking at where the Low was on the Wunderground Wunder map at 1000 and comparing it to now, (1820)  it's moved quite a ways off shore.

On a North/South line, it's just to the East of center line of Houston and is approximately 100 to 150 miles S.
AND the circulation is keeping a HUGE band of primarily RED (heavy rain) over the Houston Metro area.

If it travels N as fast as it did E today, it'll just be on the N side of Houston Metro by this time (1826) tomorrow.
At that point, the beginning of the end of this for that area will start.

The geographical area Houston is in is named the Coastal Plans.  Lots and lots of relatively flat land.  So  run off runs off like a fat man hauls A$$ - it takes 2 or 3 trips to get there.

This is a historic event, people who have never had flooding problems are finding that up to this point they'd just been lucky.

[TWP]

More information about the evacuation notice(s)... Who knew what and when did they know it?

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/28/why-didnt-houston-evacuate-before-harvey-hit.html

Warning; this is a media report and it should be read with skepticism.  What is reported may be true, or not.

I expect this will become a brouhaha on a par with the Katrina discussion about what the mayor knew and what was said.

The most credible part of this is this quote:

"Retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honorè, who led the Department of Defense response to hurricanes Katrina and Rita, told the Wall Street Journal that experience has made officials wary of ordering an evacuation."“I’m not trying to be critical of the mayor and history will prove whether they guessed right or they guessed wrong,” he said. “But I do not believe we should leave people in [a] place we know is going to flood. It’s counterintuitive.”
This tells me that I must be the one who makes the decision to go or stay...