Your analysis looks a lot like what I see happening... In the present moment.
Long term, there are actions which might be taken by people who cannot accept the situation. Those people are in this country and in other countries. This is an unknown factor, but with a negative effect in the analysis.
some other factors which enter into my analysis include:
Obamacare (ACA) which I give a major negative rank. Whatever replaces it needs to be made known before I can rank it.
Military support increasing in the USA by both government and populace. I rank this a positive factor as it could mean jobs for more people and a place to go for many younger people.
Complementary increase in opposition to our military (shades of the '60's return again). This would be a negative.
Economic changes to address the debt. Inflation seems unavoidable, so any actions will likely be painful to most people. A negative factor and an indicator for movement of wealth to commodities (Real Estate, Food production, Mining, and physical precious metals.)
Positive signs of job creation (not realized yet, but words are being spoken and promises made).
Immigration (legal and illegal) remains a negative factor. Europe and the EU are examples to watch.
The "unrest" in the middle east does not appear to be reduced by any country's actions. I rank this as high negative factor, worldwide.
Please note that I'm not making any attempt to place a quantitative value on these rankings. That seems to require a judgment on the part of each person doing an analysis. I'm no more "correct" than anybody else and I can't guess how severe some of these factors really are, at this time. All I can suggest is whether a factor will be a plus or minus on the balance sheet.
So; on balance, the net effect is still pretty much in the negative side. My optimism is low, at least until I see some action under the new US administration...
So I keep prepping