What's the reasoning behind the 90% fatality prediction from an EMP?

[TWP]

I've seen this number (90% death rate) for the last couple of weeks.   So I was interested in this article which gives some of the possible reasons why this may be a possible result from a very wide spread EMP event.

DISCLAIMER.  The source of an EMP (ElectroMagnetic Pulse) event may NOT have such a wide area of impact.  It COULD, but much depends on the type of event which causes it.

An EMP induced by a Solar Mass Ejection may well impast an entire hemisphere of the planet.  Our only real record of this size EMP is the "Carrington Event" in 1859.  We have had lesser SME's which did cause effects in our communication networks, but that was the most recent large EMP.

EMP's can also be man-made using a nuclear weapon driven device.  Again, we DO NOT have examples of this in actual practice.  This is a good thing...

Depending on placement, a man-made EMP may cover a good fraction of a continent, for instance the North American continent.  Or it may be more localized.

https://urbansurvivalsite.com/population-die-without-electricity/

So this article is addressing a worst case event, which wipes out our electrical grid over most of the continent.

In this particular scenario, the expected affects, those which can cause widespread death, are NOT immediate.  They are the after-affect of losing electrical power and not being able to restore it quickly.

The affects mentioned are:

1)  No Electricity Means No Water

2)  No Electricity Means No Food

3)  No Electricity Means No Climate Control  (NO not the regional climate but personal home and workspace climate)

4)  No Electricity Means No Modern Medicine

5)  No Electricity Means More Murders

Read the article for the specific details of these items.  The titles may appear too broad, but they refer to long term affects, in the months (years) following an EMP.

Then read the ending which offers some general prepper advice on avoiding the worst of these problems.

[Jerry D Young]

I do think there will be additional reasons for the high short- to mid-term death tolls. Some could probably be considered falling within the broad categories listed, some probably not. But I do believe the 90% is a valid number, though many do not. Much of it depends on the severity of the event and how widespread it is.

Just my opinion.

[WolfBrother]

I believe the time will start essentially immediately - life support systems depending on electricity, emergency controls depending on electricity.

Then folks running out of food/water and medicines that require refrigeration.

After 6 months to a year the bulk of the 90% will be gone.  THEN starts losses due to bands of zombies.

It jis tain't gunna be purty.

[Jerry D Young]

Starvation is often listed as one of the primary causes of the probable massive die-off. I really do not believe that very many people will actually starve to death. Mostly because it takes a long time to actually reach the point of death for lack of food.


I think one of the main causes of a massive die-off will be lack of potable water. People will either wind up drinking contaminated water, which will make them ill enough that they will not be able to function well enough to be able to last long enough to recover, even assuming they do get good water, or they will become dehydrated to the point they can no longer think well enough to not wind up getting themselves killed or simply not be able to reason well enough to find a solution. Then there will be violence over water that will kill many more.


I believe the other primary cause of death over the medium term, unless the situation actually begins in the middle of really extreme weather conditions, will be death due to exposure. Both to cold and to heat, depending on the season and circumstances.


In subfreezing temperatures, many people will simply die from the cold, and many others will die due to efforts to stay warm that wind up killing them. Fires started from open flames, carbon monoxide poisioning from lack of ventilation using combustion heaters, accidents involving liquid fuels.


Just my opinion.

[eeyore]

Some of the original (or first) ones along with life support, will be the planes literally falling out of the sky and vehicular accidents that will happen.  There will also be as both of you said medicines that will run out and some just from stress.  But untreated water will  kill in bunch as Jerry said the dehydration.

[TWP]

Based on the good comments (all of them, thank you) below, I'd like to divert this thread and ask:

What can be done to avoid these "side affects" from an EMP?

My take, which is NOT inclusive:

1)  Have adequate (more than you need) water filtering AND purification equipment.  Not just stored water.

2)  For those who have a medicine requirement, stock as much as you can, safely and investigate alternatives, Now.

3)  From my original link article, if you rely on anything electrically operated, Find An Alternative, Now.

4)  Prepare your shelter, whatever that may be (house, BOL, trailer, etc.) for winter cold.  That will include heavier blankets, heavier winter clothing, door and window seals, added wall insulation, wood heating ability (safe, not after-market add on), one or more means of cooking without electricity (wood, solar, manure gas generator, etc.).

What else?  I know I've missed things in a quick run-through.

[WolfBrother]

WB edited to specific:

Based on the good comments (all of them, thank you) below, I'd like to divert this thread and ask:

What can be done to avoid these "side affects" from an EMP?

My take, which is NOT inclusive:

1)  Have adequate (more than you need) water filtering AND purification equipment.  Not just stored water.

You'll also need access to a 24x7x365 water source.

2) 
For those who have a medicine requirement, stock as much as you can, safely and investigate alternatives, Now.

Alternatives will include herbal substitutes.  Willow tree bark was the original source of salicin - which is the original base for aspirin.

3)  From my original link article, if you rely on anything electrically operated, Find An Alternative, Now.

Be prepared to live like like they did in 1870.

4)  Prepare your shelter, whatever that may be (house, BOL, trailer, etc.) for winter cold.  That will include heavier blankets, heavier winter clothing, door and window seals, added wall insulation, wood heating ability (safe, not after-market add on), one or more means of cooking without electricity (wood, solar, manure gas generator, etc.).

What else?  I know I've missed things in a quick run-through.

If you live in an area that gets COLD you may need to prepare a small room for all to sleep in.  A small area is easier to keep warm than a large one is.  You'll need a way to heat (coal/wood/whatever).

[TWP]

WolfBrother, I like the idea of a separate "sleeping room".  In the northern tier states and upward, this would/should be design feature of all homes.

I recall that in past centuries, the kitchen was frequently the sleeping area in winter.  Any bedrooms were built around the chimney and above the kitchen.

[WolfBrother]

WolfBrother, I like the idea of a separate "sleeping room".  In the northern tier states and upward, this would/should be design feature of all homes.

I recall that in past centuries, the kitchen was frequently the sleeping area in winter.  Any bedrooms were built around the chimney and above the kitchen.

My Aunt Lil inherited her family's ranch house after her parents passed.  Her Dad inherited it his parents who settled there in the late 1890s.  It was 8 rooms.

Central - a very large fireplace backing opening to the living room and with it's back (radiant heat) to a bedroom.

At that time, all heat/cooking was done with wood.  No indoor bathrooms.   The close windmill had a 200 gallon tank with the bottom 10' off the ground.  The overflow went into a "cement pond" and a pipe went to the sink in the kitchen.  In the late 1800's - running water to the kitchen.  Of course during the occasional winter week long freeze it proved problematic.

The house had a large sleeping porch facing the prevalent wind direction. ALL the rooms were high ceilinged, all had numbers of large windows.

Their place was located close to Garden City, TX.  As progress came to West Texas, bathrooms were build on, wiring was added, Propane plumbed in.

[willc453]

The EMP effect is a 800 pound gorilla that no one really KNOWS what'll happen if/when it hits. About 3-4(?) years ago, Boeing started testing an EMP missile w/the Air Force. In one of the tests, not only was the targeted equipment destroyed, but some of the test equipment which was THOUGHT to be properly shielded was also damaged. Don't remember if any of the test equipment was destroyed though. Last I read was the Israeli's, Russians & Chinese were working on EMP bombs/missiles themselves. I haven't found any recent news articles about EMP weapons since. What's that tell you?

Everyone's read One Second After, but remember the scene from the movie The Day After where the doctor's headed for the hospital when a nuke goes off far, far away and suddenly everyone's vehicles quit working because the electronics got fried? How many MILLIONS of people are on the road, not just going to work, but moving, on vacation, etc.? One Second After gives a BRIEF description of what it would be like people fleeing cities, but also, there's Alas, Babylon which does the same.