(Update 11/28/16) What to learn from Venezuela (podcast)

[Clay]

It also proves that storing food might not be good enough. For most of these people, six months of preps may very well have come and gone by now.

[TWP]

It also proves that storing food might not be good enough. For most of these people, six months of preps may very well have come and gone by now.

That is an absolute truth.  And I'll also bet that few have access to garden space.  Add to that; the southern hemisphere is just coming out of "winter" so few crops are available.

[TWP]

This article gives an intelligent (my opinion) analysis of the lessons to be learned from Venezuela:

http://urbansurvivalsite.com/10-lessons-from-venezuelas-economic-collapse/

As I read this article, I tried to apply them to our country and ask: "When might this happen here?"

[Clay]

That is a well written article.

Did you hear about the pot and pan protest?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuelas-president-nicholas-maduro-chased-by-angry-pot-banging-protesters-margarita-island-a7224386.html

[TWP]

Yes, I think that is what happens when the population has been dis-armed and they lack pitchforks and shovels (it was in the city).  I hope Maduro wet his pants.

Actually, the protesters were complaining about lack of food, hence the pots and pans.

This report has a video of the protest, warning, it is auto-play, so if your bandwidth (or your wallet) cannot handle it, don't follow the link.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/world/americas/venezuelan-president-is-chased-by-angry-protesters.html?_r=0

At least the "police" did not fire on the crowd.

Fortunately, the populace of our country is a little better armed...

[TWP]

Things are not going well in Venezuela.

This report contains descriptions of many of the things to watch out for, should we face a similar situation.

There are enough points of similarity, already, to what is happening in this country, to raise my warning flags.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8924/venezuela-death-spiral

I don't expect Venezuela to go away quietly, so I advise all of you to keep an eye on exactly HOW it fails, and how long it takes to reach its end.

I note the reports of people looking for food in trash; "dumpster diving", and I wonder who has food to throw away?

[Clay]

I hope they hit bottom soon, but I fear they won't. It's hard to watch, but it's also a good lesson.

[TWP]

Damned if you do, damned if you don't...

You'll have to navigate the popup to read this story.  Look for the small text "no thanks" below the popup request for payment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/in-a-hungry-venezuela-buying-too-much-food-can-get-you-arrested/2016/09/14/b20276d6-755f-11e6-9781-49e591781754_story.html

Also scroll to the bottom of the article for links to other news about Venezuela's troubles.

So this is how it is in Venezuela now, with no end in sight.

Long lines, little food for sale, arrest for just being in line ( ).

I wonder where the money is coming from now? (720% inflation rate is reported elsewhere).

Have you noted the closure of Walmart KMart and Sears stores in this country?

Got Garden?

[edit] KMart, not Walmart closings...

[TWP]

Venezuela is bad news.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2016/09/26/venezuelan-children-fainting-in-school-because-are-hungry/

This is in a "state supported" school system...

Food is probably the single biggest problem in Venezuela.

Food delivery has failed for the majority of the population

Lesson:

Our own food delivery system is very nearly a "just in time" design; food is shipped to stores which do NOT keep large inventories.  If the delivery system fails, we might have a week's worth of food on store shelves.

This assumes that the stores are not emptied in the first two days after the event which stops delivery.  This is likely to the case.  For examples, look at the weather problems we have had in the last year or so.  Stores experience a "run" on supplies by people who are not prepared ahead of time...

What amazes me is the Venezuela's schools are still open.

[Clay]

The schools being open could be attributed to people trying to carry on with their normal lives as much as possible as a means of coping.

[TWP]

Good point.  Their school system, and their opinion of it, may be very different than what I see in the U.S.

In a time of crisis like they are experiencing, I (opinion) would not want my children going anyplace which might not be safe...

Question for all:  Do you trust the public school system (here in the U.S.) to keep you children safe?  Now or for instance, during a severe depression?

[Clay]

I don't trust anyone to keep my kids safe. That is purely my responsibilty, and a skill that they are learning for themselves. They will need that skill when they go off into the real world to fend for themselves, and I hope I teach them well.

[TWP]

What is wrong with this picture?  Not the picture in the linked article, but the situation described in the article:

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/09/29/venezuela-vacation-us-toilet-paper/

People who can afford to book vacations in another country, are unable to buy food in their own country...

Money is still available in Venezuela, some people must still be working and getting paid (a guess on my part).

But food is not available?

This is one way the supply system can fail.  The Bolivar, the Venezuelan currency, is so devalued that the countries which used to import food will no longer do so.

So what would happen if, for instance, the US fiat dollar became so devalued that California would not want to ship food to the other states?

In our own local area, we depend on trucks crossing the mountains to bring food (among other necessities).
What do we do here, if that flow stops, or even slows down?

Plans?  Gardens? Stockpiles?  Hoarding is an option for those who worry about such events, but your food stocks can only last for so long, and then you need a backup plan to keep food on the table.

[Clay]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3830672/Prisoners-starving-death-Venezuela-s-jails-country-s-economic-collapse-sees-food-medicine-run-out.html

It's not getting any better down there. How much longer before they let the prisoners free? What does it take to trigger a "golden hoarde" fleeing the country? I'm amazed that it hasn't happened yet.

[TWP]

There is a government crack-down.  For all intents, it is now a dictatorship.  Military is used to control the population and the military is getting fed, if not paid.  I don't know how long that can last either:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2016/10/21/its-official-venezuela-is-a-dictatorship/

Private gun ownership apparently was banned in 2012:

http://crimeresearch.org/2016/04/venezuela-homicide-rate-rose-after-2012-ban-on-private-ownership-of-guns/

So the populace has little means of resistance and are dependent on food delivery by military...

Pretty severe lessons are presented here.  One reason I'm watching the elections here, very closely...