(Update 11/28/16) What to learn from Venezuela (podcast)

[TWP]

This is a short (22:49min) podcast which discusses what we, as preppers, can learn from the situation in Venezuela:

http://prepperrecon.com/venezuelan-collapse/

Disclaimer: there is a fair amount of advertising embedded in this podcast...

[Edit]  This report from Bloomberg (not my most trusted news source, but...)

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-venezuela-diary/

Let me point out something about this last article; Looking at the pictures, you see cars driving on the roads, which is a reality, Venezuela has lots of oil and gasoline/diesel is very cheap, but there is little or no food accessible to the average Venezuelan...

Do read the article, and note that it is a compilation from a month long diary, not the whole diary but enough to show what is happening.

Then ask yourself what you will do if/when this hits the USA?  We don't have cheap gas to make long trips to find food...  Our food is shipped across state lines and that "pipeline" is among the first things to stop running.

PS Read the label on the milk carton she is holding.  In Spanish it says 'Hecho in Socialismo" which translates as "Made in Socialism"  which tells you much of what is happening in Venezuela.  I find it more than curious that this is considered acceptable advertising...

[Clay]

That is a good article, thank you for sharing.

How long do you think this situation will last?

How much food storage would have been enough to make it through?

[TWP]

...
How long do you think this situation will last?

How much food storage would have been enough to make it through?

Hard to answer with any accuracy...

We're talking about a country under marshal law, no reports (that I find anyway) about resistance from the general population or the military. 

Without an end in sight, there is no way to calculate how much food would have be "enough".  I think the only response is to grow your own food, assuming you have a place to do that. 

Comparing their situation to ours (personally), we would have to bug out from this urban environment and find a place to start a garden/homestead.   

Watching Venezuela, it looks like many/most people are still in a "hunker down" mode and trying to survive on government handouts.  There is still money flowing in their economy, people are still driving cars (cheat gas) and there appears to be enough food moving to stores to keep people from leaving the cities in large numbers.

I do see that Venezuela has opened their border to allow food purchase, by individuals, from neighboring countries.
Curiously, I do not see a mass migration out of Venezuela.  I don't know why this is not happening, or perhaps it is simply not being reported.

Again, comparing to the USA, there is no "other" country to which we might "escape".  Mexico is very un-friendly to the US and Canada is not much better off than we are and is definitely a cooler climate.  Within the US, some states are in better condition to accept a flood of hungry people from another state (think of the golden horde leaving California). but the routes out of those places may not be able to handle a mass exodus and other states may be unwilling to accept such a flood of new, hungry people.

It comes down to planning, now, for possible future events.

[Clay]

I've never really been a beliver in the golden hoard theory, and this situation kind of proves why. While there may be some people that are fleeing the cities, most people have no idea what to do outside of their norm. They can except changes to their norm, but not a complete change all together. Plus, human nature is to hunker down. Being a refugee is bad and everyone knows it.

[TWP]

In the interest of more learning from Venezuela's situation, If you are following the news, you have seen this:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/29/news/economy/venezuela-decree-farm-labor/

Reading the various articles, of which this in only one example, the infrastructure of Venezuela has collapsed, taking with it the ability to manufacture and repair farm equipment.  Manual labor is still available...

This is having the result of forced farm labor ( conscription ) with all that represents.

Comparing their situation to ours (the US), what do your prepper plans include which might address a similar collapse?

Let me point out something about our particular area (Nevada) and the ability to grow food and feed crops.  We are very dependent on being able to both receive and send crops and livestock to and from farms.  And those same farms are dependent on electric power for irrigation and fuel for farm machinery.

So do your plans address what might happen in our local urban area(s) if the food "pipeline" is crippled?

Look at the small strip of farm land that is closest to the main river(s).  Is it enough to support the current population?

Where are the farmers going to come from if we must use this narrow strip of farm land for survival?

I have farming skills and I can maintain a SMALL garden space, but we are looking at a lot of mouths to be fed in even a small town, if we cannot ship food from other farms...

[Jerry D Young]

I believe there will be an exodus from the area due to any infrastructure failure that looks to be longer than a month or so. This includes food supplies coming in. Whether or not it will be voluntary, forced, peaceful, or violent remains to be seen.

I do not think there will be adequate cooperation to successfully use the available areas that can have crops grown on them. Not where, not when, not by whom, and not what crops.

Just my opinion.

[TWP]

Jerry,  I agree with the lack of cooperation, certainly in the initial period after an "event"

After some time, months to years, the remaining population will need to use these resources and I expect some kind of agreement will be reached.  We're not talking about a large group of people unless the transportation infrastructure is restored.

[Clay]

They are talking about in both that article and others how this is the "plan" but how it is very highly disregarded amongst the population. I'd be willing to bet that the Venezuelan version of "will not comply" becomes very popular soon.

Conscription is going to lead to a bad place, so it's interesting to watch a present day version of it unfold.

[TWP]

How bad is it getting in Venezuela?

http://www.thedailysheeple.com/starving-venezuelans-break-into-zoo-to-butcher-animal_082016

This crisis is less than a year old, unless you look at the longer time line in which there were warning signs for the last couple of years.

I think (opinion) that Venezuela has fallen over the economic and social "cliff" and the rate of collapse has accelerated in the last 30 days.

So how long do you think a similar collapse would take, here?

I'll place a bet that few people in Venezuela were "preppers" in the sense that we use the term.  Or perhaps those that were, used good OPSEC and didn't let everyone know their plans.  Note that "hoarders", in Venezuela, were immediately vilified and branded as criminals...

Keep watching Venezuela...

[David-Audrey]

I have read with great interest of the ongoing problems and offer these points for your consideration:

• It is encouraging that the problems have not led to mass-hysteria and really widespread violence ...yet
• It is encouraging that the countries troubles have been, essentially, isolated and not had a huge ripple effect across borders
• I find it curious that there appears to be massive unhappiness, but general acceptance of the situation, but...
• I believe that the famine level must not have reached a point where large numbers of people are dying...when fathers don't have enough food to keep their children alive.  I think if that happens, all bets are off
• While I hope that there is a solution, I'm more worried about the situation worsening.  How much longer can that many people be miserable before some random event lights the fuse.  But what will violence accomplish for the masses...even with violence, there won't be enough revenue to buy the food they need.  And it will take years to rebuild the infrastructure
• Lastly, where is the liberal press in the U.S.  I see very little coverage in the main-stream press and none of it broadcast

Just thought of one other thing.  Randomness.  What, local, regional, national or international event will occur to either stir the pot, or, I pray, save the day?

[TWP]

David-Audrey, good points which gave me food for thought.

I find it curious that the borders have been opened for food shopping in neighboring countries, but there has not been a "refugee" crisis.  The people are coming back after shopping.

1)  They have money to shop.

2) The situation is not so bad that they don't want to return. Unless it is a hostage situation with family members left behind.

I too noted the lack of media coverage, at least here in the U.S.  My paranoia leads me to ask "what else are we not being told?"...

[Clay]

Taking the above points one step further, maybe it's really not as bad as the media or their government want you to believe.

In Syria we know for a fact the SHTF, and now the people are leaving in droves. This isn't happening in Venezuela, so what does that tell us?

[TWP]

This is hard to call.  What I read (the internet is the absolute truth, NOT) there are food shortages and rioting put down by the military.  The big media is simply not reporting this, nor does the Venezuelan government make public statements.

I try to compare their situation to what might hypothetically happen here.  Again a hard call since we don't know how we will respond to something like what may be happening in Venezuela.

There are similar factors and I won't go into them on this forum but it is possible to connect the dots and see the bigger picture.

My point remains: we can learn from what is (reported) happening in Venezuela and plan accordingly.

[TWP]

Venezuela is getting worse...

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10S2I9

This report states that guns are being destroyed and that there is a plan to register bullets...

So, what do I learn from this?

1) Try to avoid having a boating accident while transporting guns.
2) I cannot recall exactly how many rounds I expended at each of my range visits, but it was a lot.

[TWP]

Venezuela is not able to supply enough food to it population:

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/venezuela-isnt-just-in-crisis-but-faces-total-societal-collapse_08242016

This is what happens when the supply line fails.

Note, again, that there is gasoline available for cars and motorcycles, but inflation is very high and food is rationed.

The people do NOT have any stored foods (preps) and are limited to what they are allowed to purchase at government controlled outlets.

Lesson?  We are only as secure as the US trucking and rail delivery system is able to operate...

DO read the article and note that crime is a major factor, with few people willing to oppose the criminals for fear of losing their place in line.