The mainstream media started a fuss with the theory that the North Koreans were getting ready to launch a vehicle into low earth orbit (LEO) in October for the 70th anniversary of something or another. As I wrote in a previous email, as of four weeks ago, there really was no confirmation of any launch preparations at the Sohae heavy booster facility.
A series of overhead imagery missions has just been completed and a report published by 38 North. There is still no proof that launch preparations are in-process. However, absence of proof is not proof of absence. The way the equipment is configured, it may not be possible to detect a booster on the pad until a few hours prior to launch. The vehicle transporter tower has moved between the vehicle assembly building and the launch pad several times over the past week.
A Sohae launch would be an important event. Previous long-range launches were towards the south. A launch from Sohae would be in the general direction of the United States.
If there is a launch, then booster plume intensity, color and burn duration would give some idea of the potential throw-weight (payload mass) – thanks to the SBIRS program (Lockheed Martin). If the throw weight is more than about 600 pounds, then that would be adequate for the DPRK to propel a nuclear warhead of their current design far enough to hit the Western United States. This is why so many analysts are watching the activity.
The German press reported today that Iran openly admitted that they are receiving launch system design assistance from the DPRK. This was long believed to be true, but Iran now has no reason to hide the facts.
Just as an aside, I saw where Russia put a mockup of the world’s largest hydrogen bomb on display in a Moscow museum. All the little kiddies eating crisps while the docent tells them about thermonuclear war.
I have to wonder if, in the event of a North Korean missile launch towards the US, precisely what the US would do and how the US would react. Would they attempt to activate the old Civil Defense System? Would the White House even realize anything happened until it was all over -- and maybe not even then, if they are stoned out of their minds on marijuana?
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