(upd 4/22/17) Article - Bug-out or Bug-in Discussion

[TWP]

This is a multi-part article and I will update this thread as more parts are posted:

Part 1)  https://survivalblog.com/should-i-bug-out-or-survive-in-place-part-1-by-jonathan-hollerman/

Part 2)  https://survivalblog.com/should-i-bug-out-or-survive-in-place-part-2-by-jonathan-hollerman/

Part 3)  https://survivalblog.com/should-i-bug-out-or-survive-in-place-part-3-by-jonathan-hollerman/

Part 1 includes some warnings on who you might trust as sources of "prepping" advice, supplies and information.  I found it interesting and do advise a careful read and research into any resource you might be considering.

Part 2 addresses three events which are most likely to result in a world-wide collapse of society / civilization.  These are large scale events, not just things which might effect your local area for up to months, but EOTW level catastrophes.  Emphasis is placed on the shortcomings and serious problems with the Bug-In plans.  Bug-in is NOT recommended for this level of 'event'.

Part 3 talks about how to bug-out when you (like me) cannot afford to buy a bug-out-location (BOL).  Several options are presented, including serious scouting of more than a few suitable locations for a BOL and then doing some "cold call visits to speak face-to-face with any owners and residents at those locations.  DO READ the authors advice on how to do this, it has a lot of detail that I will not repeat here.

In part 3, the author advises using Google(r) Earth as a property search tool.  This raises a lot of flags for me and I would NEVER use a Google(r) tool for anything which I wanted keep private...  There are other tools which will show terrain images and geographical features... tools which don't keep a database of your search actions and results. Remember OPSEC when looking for a BOL.

Some alternative geo-search tools are:

https://zoom.earth/

https://www.weather.gov/satellite

http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/

https://scihub.copernicus.eu/dhus

http://reverb.echo.nasa.gov/reverb

DISCLAIMER:  None of these alternative image sources are guaranteed to be any more secure than Google(r) Earth, but they (Google(r) Earth) are a known bad-actor with respect to privacy.  Do Your Own Due Diligence On This.

The source of the above links is:

http://gisgeography.com/free-satellite-imagery-data-list/

[pqtb]

Great Article.

Anyone planning living off the land in the north east is in for a rude surprise.  The wild life populations will be decimated in a short order and most of the streams and rivers will be over fished.   There are locations that are exceptions to this but not many.   I would suggest using the native population levels before white man arrived as a guide to what the area might support in after x number years into PSHTF.   The best plan is to find a location to grow your own food and preserve it long term with short term food storage to survive the PSHTF event.   

[230gr]

The small game and fish would likely rebound after the first year (and general human die off) but not the large game and certainly not in time to keep those without food stores from starving.

 

[Clay]

I plan to eat bugs and wild edibles.

Kind of. I'm thinking this will be the best way to stretch out the stores.

[TWP]

Part 2 has been posted and is linked in my OP below.

[pqtb]

I hope I do not resort to eating bugs but their is a limited number of wild edibles to be harvested.  My area has fiddle heads, cattail, dandelions and some other plants, multiple berries types, apples and some other fruits.   The summer months would have an abundance of foot.  The late fall thru late spring will be on stored food with maybe some fish or other game supplement.  Some of the nut trees the old timers used to survive have been hit hard by imported pests.  If one is quick they could scavenge windows to build cold frames or green houses to extend growing season.  The crops that will become important in my area will be cabbage, carrots, beets, turnips,  potatoes, dry beans maybe corn and several other grain crops.

My travels around the US and other countries leaves me to believe if there is a disruption of food supply for any length of time large number of people around the world will die.   The cities and large metro like the eastern seaboard will be in dire straits when it comes to food.

[TWP]

Part 3 of this series has been posted and I have linked to in my OP, below.   It talks about how to find a Bug-Out-Location, in great detail and especially when your financial situation does not permit buying another piece of property.

[TWP]

The original article, on Survivalblog.com, has received a number of useful comments.

It may be informative to use the "comments" button at the top of each article and read these for each of the three parts

Links are in my original post, below.

[pqtb]

Google earth seems to have the most update aerial views of online sources I have found.   Anyone tracking my google earth views I wish them good luck.   I was using google earth pro the other day to find what was in a 10 mile radius of my home location for possible drones (male bees) that my home raised queens will mate with.  I also use it to keep track of land conversion from woods to farmland and multiple other uses.

[ken_]

I liked parts 1 and 2, but the options he presented in part 3 seem like a very long stretch at best. The take-away for me was that if you're not part of a community of like minded people, you're pretty much SOL. Doesn't matter if you live in the city, suburbs, or countryside.

[TWP]

kdeboy,

I think (opinion) that the general consensus is that the lone-wolf will have a much harder time just surviving in almost any kind of crisis.

While the media (printed, radio, TV and 'net) all tend to only talk about EOTW type crises, even the more localized disasters ( house fire, flood, storms, etc.) are better handled by a group effort.

For instance, in any larger town or city, everyone will be part of a "group", whether voluntarily or by circumstance.  If the members of the group are cooperative, everyone benefits.

If the members are not already familiar with each other, I foresee a lot of personality conflict.  This is similar to flock behavior where a "pecking" order must be established.  Some members will be "shunned" and/or excluded because they cannot cooperate.  Some will leave voluntarily, if they can (the lone-wolf).  If they cannot leave, they are stuck with the situation and will be problem to the group.

I think (opinion again) that it should be obvious that prior organization and preparation within a group setting is the wiser course of action.

However, those with the "lone-wolf" mindset will probably never agree, even during a crisis.  These people tend to stand out from the "crowd" and are easy to recognize ahead of time, if you are practicing "situational awareness"...

All that being said, if a prepper observes OPSEC (operationial security) precautions, they may be perceived as being a lone-wolf by their neighbors.  That could lead to conflict between the haves and have-nots...  It's a tough call on just how far OPSEC should be maintained.

I give you our group as an example (NNPG).  We are spread widely, not just across our metropolitan area but across the country.   Those of us who are able to meet face-to-face are in a better position to work together in a crisis.  Partly, this is due to the members having agreed on the "pecking order" and have some training on cooperative efforts.

Please don't assume that I'm trying to make anybody into a lone-wolf simply because they live too far away to personally meet with other members...     "Ya'll are Welcome Here"

On a smaller scale, my own smaller "family group" lives in an apartment complex with a larger number of people who are not preppers.  We keep OPSEC to the degree possible.  We have had two instances of community size crisis (within the apartment complex).  Both involved fire and evacuation.

In one case, we were able to move our BOB's to another nearby location (we went to a nearby casino which offered shelter) until the fire danger was declared over (in this case approaching forest fire).  In the second, our building in the complex had a fire and we evacuated to a friends apartment in another building.

My point is that in both cases, we found some neighbors who were cooperative, even though we and they had no prior agreement or plans for crisis management.  These were short time crises and everyone expected to be able to go home in a short time (within a day).  BUT- if the crisis had evolved (say the complex was engulfed by the fires), the ad-hoc group would have fallen apart (my opinion) as individuals and families looked for other, safer, places to go.  No long term plans were in place for such an event.

These events occurred before we found NNPG, and before we had gone very far with prepping.  We were not too much more prepared than anyone else in the complex.  Now, thing are significantly different within our "family" group.  We know how to we expect to act (plans) and where we expect to be able to go.   To one degree or another, we are prepared..

Sorry if this rambling.  We (family group) are more aware of who is around us, where we can expect problems and where we may find some assistance (larger group).  No lone-wolf tactics are planned, even if one of us is isolated for a time, we have plans to get back together in a crisis.

I hope this ramble give somebody help in their own planning/prepping.

[ken_]

Hi TWP,

I wasn't disagreeing with you, at least not intentionally I was just saying I disagree with some of the author's ideas in part 3 of the articles posted, especially the parts about "relying on Uncle Bob" or cold-calling "farmers" who don't know me and have NO reason to trust me.

I agree that "lone wolf" is NOT the way to go, but I also think that joining any group "just because" would be a better option but maybe not that much better. I like the idea of building communities of like-minded people who will have each other's back when something happens. Maybe something small or maybe something really devastating.

I'd rather try to stay in my local area (currently Reno/Sparks) with a group of people I know and trust than try to bug-out to a location I'm not intimately familiar with, alone or with a group of people I barely know.

[TWP]

Hi kdeboy

First, would your screen name be based on the KDE Linux desktop?

Second, you didn't step on my toes and I agree with your views on groups.  I'm also in Reno/Sparks and know most of the NNPG group members (haven't met them all face-to-face yet).

I particularly agree that a small local group is better than a larger or wide spread group.  I want to know, and be know by, each member of the group.

I see no reason for multiple groups to merge, just because they are in the same local area.  In fact, there are some good arguments for separate operation while still cooperating.

[Jerry D Young]

I am an 'options' guy. I like having options.

I do believe that being part of a semi-formal organized group is my best option for surviving most possibilities. However, there are times and situations where I will need to, and have plans to, go 'lone-wolf' (a modified version of the accepted definition) in some situations. There very well could be times when I will not be with the group, or have their assistance available to me, and will have to work alone. I believe it is much better to have the plans in place, and to have practiced them ahead of time, than depending on having the group under every circumstance.

And I am a believer in MAAs between MAGs. Mutual Aid Agreements between Mutual Aid Groups. Basically, a set of independent prepper groups that have made contact with each other and have agreed to lend assistance to each other if needed. For defense, for food production/distribution, resource acquisition/distribution, etc.

Just my opinion.

[230gr]

My definition of a Mutual Assistance Group is a group of like-minded individuals who pledge to assist each other in times of crisis. This would seem to require some pre-planning on how to assist each other, a pooling of skills, resources, and labor (though not necessarily a shared shelter) also group members would participate in activities voluntary.

I envision a non-structured organization with decisions made by agreement of the members as a participatory democracy. If you do not participate, you are not regarded as a member. Do I understand this correctly?