Make A Threat Matrix Analysis

[TWP]

On our previous group page (Meetup), there was a discussion of how and why you might create a "Threat Matrix".

In simple terms, a Threat Matrix is a set of documents which collect and analyze all of the elements of threat about which you are worried.

This will vary, depending on the person who creates it...

This article goes into some detail of SOME (not all, IMO) threats which might enter into your fears and "prepper" awareness.

http://www.thesurvivalistblog.net/how-to-start-prepping-for-non-preppers/

If you understand the process, you can extend the analysis to any element which is of concern.  If you're paranoid (not necessarily a bad thing), your list can be large...

Since we each have a slightly different opinion on which "threats" are more likely than others, your Matrix can be structured with the most likely first and less likely farther down the list.

NOTE that sorting threats by what you believe is likely might push some of your "preps" to the point of never being done.  This is dangerous.

Look for common preparations which can apply to many or all of the threats and work on them first.  As you find time and money, address the rest of the items of preparation.

DO NOTE that at the end of the article there are several links to LDS (Mormon) documents which I find to be useful to just about anyone with a "prepper" mindset.


Just to get you started, my personal threat matrix, based on the "Rule of Threes", STARTS with:

Air Supply Failure  (Three minutes without oxygen)
Shelter Failure (Three hours without shelter)
Water Supply Failure (Three days without water)
Food Supply Failure (Three weeks without food)

In My Opinion, these four "threats" are both most likely and most important for survival.

You can add any number of possible threats, any combination of which might cause one of the first three four.  So be prepared for the "big four" and you have some assurance that other, less likely, threats are covered (not totally, but you won't be left to die of asphyxiation, exposure, dehydration, starvation).

SO, read the article and add you comments to the thread.

[Jerry D Young]

I updated my threat matrix spreadsheet recenty. When I get my laptop back Iwill put it up here.

Just my opinion.

[xoruss]

TWP,
  I have had an assignment from my local LDS Stake (Diocese) leadership to teach all 9 congregations in the stake how to finally prepare and present an Emergency Preps/Communications/Response plan for their ward area. Then I needed to offer suggested changes and send the document back to each ward. Then I was asked to write a similar plan except for how the Stake would administer various events. Now the Stake President wants me to have each ward survey their membersand give me the percentages of those who have a year's supply of food for their family . Each ward will give me just a percentage not names. They will also need to present a plan to improve the the results of that survey. At the end of May they are to give me a hopefully higher percentage of participation which I will give to the Stake President. In my spare time...
Russ

[eeyore]

Maybe you all could revive the old threat board that we (Jerry, 230, ez and a few others) did a few years ago, maybe you could make something like that happen for your local group to cover just your area.

Also as an off shoot ez had a spread sheet similar to the book that Skousen (Strategic Relocation) did about given areas, ez did something for specific areas.  It was pretty good.  Wish I had one.  But you could take Skousens book and add/refine to it for any problem areas he does not cover

[230gr]

Kopple had a great deal to say about the LSD organization from top on down to the Stake (Diocese) level as a model for our government to emulate. I was very impressed with its thoroughness and forward thinking.

In the words of Kurt Saxon, those who prepare to survive, deserve to survive. 

[xoruss]

   I hope you meant LDS instead of LSD. There is a difference. LSD sends you on a trip... LDS send you on a mission.
Russ

[230gr]

I think is getting close to bedtime.

 I am a child of the 60s and LSD was the psychedelic drug of choice and some trips you never came back from. Knew enough to leave that poision alone! 

[xoruss]

   I am a child of the 60's also and chose mission over trip.
Russ

[Jerry D Young]

Got my laptop back. Here is the latest version of my Threat Matrix spreadsheet.

I would appreciate any feedback, especially of any bugs.

Just my opinion.

[WolfBrother]

An example with an explanation would probably be helpful.

When I do something like this I make sure it passes the Debbie from Greenbrier test.  I met Debbie somewhere around 1989. She was 3 or 4 years post High School, average intelligence, not especially computer literate.  I figured if she could more or less use anything I wrote then it was well done.   Not a slam against her (or you Jerry), it seems that any number of people just expect you to think the way they do.

[TWP]

Hi Jerry,

I'm just starting to fill out your XLS sheet and I notice this:

The Threat Scoring Probability cells (Column D) does not behave consistently.  When I enter a value (1-6) for each threat type, the cell sometimes shows the value (1-6) and sometimes it pulls the text description (ie. 40%-60%) from the table of Threats.  The formula for each cell is not attached to each cell in Column D...

The values 3 and 5 seem most likely to do this.

=====

Under Threat Scoring - Area (Col. E ) the cell for Job Loss will not accept a value of 0 (zero) for Home.  The cell content is set to a string: "      - ".

=====

Under Threat Scoring - Duration (Col. F) the cell does not display either the number (1-6) or the correct text description. 

[xoruss]

I call it the Russ test. If I can figure it out, any darn fool can.

[Jerry D Young]

I will trouble shoot and repost.

Thank you everyone.

Jery

[xoruss]

Has anyone else done a threat analysis on todays inauguration?
Russ

[TWP]

xoruss;

I have not.  Will you share your analysis?  What factors did you apply and how did you weigh them?

Taken as one element of the whole world situation, is the inauguration an overall plus or minus factor?

Looking at local effects, I see a heightened threat for short term danger, however this is not constant and depends on the political "climate" of each community.  Some areas are at greater risk than others, so each person must look at how their own community is being effected.  Pay attention to neighboring communities (just over the hill) since unrest can "spill over" from their area to yours.  I give you Chicago and all of California as examples to watch.

Next, one's immediate neighborhood has a very high weight factor.  Again each of use lives in a slightly different zone.  If my next door neighbor is a prepper, then I pay attention to what they do and say.  If they are NOT aware, then I watch even closer, under the assumption that they (the unprepared) represent a higher danger level in an "event".

Nationally, each country will react differently.  Our immediate neighbors, Canada and Mexico are weighed most heavily, simply because of proximity to our borders.  With the availability of long range weapons, other countries are given some higher risk factor (ie. North Korean, China, USSR). 

Without resorting to fear mongering ("The Sky Is Falling"), I would welcome a calm and more or less detailed analysis of HOW an analysis is applied.

I will now don my tin foil armor and crouch over my video screen in my bunker, eagerly waiting to be told where the nearest FEMA camp can be found....